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短期维持震荡判断,中期市场仍存机会【兴财富第69期

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年01月21日 20:01:09
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(量)(化)(市)(场)(观)(点)(
回)(顾)(近)(期)(市)(场)(走)(势)(,六)(月)(上)(旬)(中)(小)(创)(出)(现)(了)(快)(速)(反)(弹)(而)(大)(盘)(蓝)(筹)(小)(幅)(回)(撤)(,而)(中)(旬)(开)(始)(再)(次)(切)(换)(,本)(周)(沪)(深)(300强)(势)(上)(涨)(2.96%,而)(创)(业)(板)(指)(则)(回)(调)(了)(0.14%,市)(场)(风)(格)(出)(现)(了)(快)(速)(轮)(动)(。
对)(于)(短)(期)(周)(度)(市)(场)(走)(势)(的)(判)(断)(,我)(们)(维)(持)(前)(期)(观)(点)(,对)(市)(场)(整)(体)(持)(中)(性)(预)(期)(,同)(时)(对)(风)(格)(的)(判)(断)(维)(持)(均)(衡)(预)(期)(。模)(型)(主)(要)(指)(标)(的)(表)(现)(如)(下)(:第)(一)(,宏)(观)(指)(标)(整)(体)(呈)(现)(中)(性)(表)(现)(,汇)(率)(维)(持)(小)(幅)(贬)(值)(的)(态)(势)(对)(市)(场)(情)(绪)(为)(负)(面)(影)(响)(,而)(债)(券)(利)(差)(的)(表)(现)(则)(对)(创)(业)(板)(指)(呈)(现)(一)(定)(利)(好)(,而)(国)(际)(股)(市)(的)(震)(荡)(走)(势)(对)(A股)(影)(响)(较)(弱)(;第)(二)(,价)(量)(指)(标)(继)(续)(呈)(现)(分)(化)(走)(势)(,尤)(其)(创)(业)(板)(指)(龙)(头)(股)(呈)(现)(明)(显)(下)(行)(趋)(势)(,对)(指)(数)(存)(在)(明)(显)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(。
对)(于)(中)(长)(期)(市)(场)(走)(势)(的)(判)(断)(,我)(们)(结)(合)(宏)(观)(利)(率)(、估)(值)(水)(平)(、指)(数)(趋)(势)(和)(市)(场)(情)(绪)(四)(大)(维)(度)(的)(指)(标)(,对)(沪)(深)(300和)(创)(业)(板)(指)(的)(季)(度)(收)(益)(率)(做)(预)(测)(,模)(型)(最)(新)(观)(点)(与)(上)(周)(相)(比)(有)(所)(上)(调)(,对)(沪)(深)(300未)(来)(三)(个)(月)(收)(益)(率)(预)(期)(有)(所)(下)(降)(到)(4.5%(3790点)(),而)(对)(创)(业)(板)(指)(的)(点)(位)(在)(1920点)(附)(近)((未)(来)(三)(个)(月)(收)(益)(率)(6%)。对)(于)(沪)(深)(300指)(数)(,估)(值)(、趋)(势)(、情)(绪)(指)(标)(对)(收)(益)(贡)(献)(为)(正)(,但)(资)(金)(指)(标)(仍)(然)(对)(收)(益)(为)(负)(向)(贡)(献)(,不)(过)(整)(体)(负)(向)(影)(响)(不)(大)(;对)(于)(创)(业)(板)(指)(,估)(值)(和)(情)(绪)(指)(标)(对)(指)(数)(的)(收)(益)(贡)(献)(为)(正)(,但)(指)(数)(趋)(势)(指)(标)(表)(明)(指)(数)(仍)(存)(一)(定)(风)(险)(,综)(合)(判)(断)(两)(指)(数)(均)(存)(在)(一)(定)(机)(会)(。
3
策)(略)(净)(值)(表)(现)(
季)(度)(模)(型)(
当)(前)(季)(度)(模)(型)(对)(沪)(深)(300指)(数)(建)(议)(的)(仓)(位)(为)(100%,而)(对)(创)(业)(板)(指)(建)(议)(的)(仓)(位)(为)(100%。从)(策)(略)(净)(值)(来)(看)(,本)(周)(沪)(深)(300指)(数)(策)(略)(净)(值)(上)(涨)(2.96%,而)(创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(策)(略)(净)(值)(下)(跌)(0.50%。
周)(度)(模)(型)(
我)(们)(在)(上)(周)(对)(沪)(深)(300指)(数)(和)(创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(打)(分)(分)(别)(是)(3分)(和)(5分)(,对)(市)(场)(整)(体)(持)(中)(性)(预)(期)(,且)(对)(市)(场)(风)(格)(持)(均)(衡)(判)(断)(。从)(本)(周)(市)(场)(表)(现)(看)(,沪)(深)(300指)(数)(上)(涨)(2.96%,而)(同)(时)(创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(下)(跌)(0.14%。从)(策)(略)(净)(值)(看)(,沪)(深)(300指)(数)(策)(略)(净)(值)(上)(涨)(0.36%,而)(创)(业)(板)(指)(数)(策)(略)(净)(值)(下)(跌)(0.13%,对)(于)(下)(周)(我)(们)(建)(议)(对)(沪)(深)(300指)(数)(和)(创)(业)(板)(指)(均)(维)(持)(低)(仓)(位)(。
短)(期)(市)(场)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(下)(行)(,风)(格)(维)(持)(价)(值)(占)(优)(——兴)(财)(富)(第)(59期)((2017.4.16提)(示)(市)(场)(风)(险)()
温)(和)(看)(涨)(短)(期)(后)(市)(走)(势)(——兴)(财)(富)("瞳)(观)(天)(下)(第)(51期)((2017.2.19再)(次)(看)(多)(创)(业)(板)(指)()
震)(荡)(行)(情)(大)(概)(率)(延)(续)(,大)(盘)(蓝)(筹)(相)(对)(占)(优)(——兴)(财)(富)("瞳)(观)(天)(下)(第)(40期)((2016.12.2提)(示)(创)(业)(板)(的)(调)(整)(风)(险)()
风)(险)(情)(绪)(释)(放)(,短)(期)(转)(向)(温)(和)(看)(涨)(——兴)(财)(富)("瞳)(观)(天)(下)(第)(24期)((提)(示)(市)(场)(反)(弹)(机)(会)()
反)(弹)(低)(于)(预)(期)(,后)(市)(重)(归)(谨)(慎)(——兴)(财)(富)(瞳)(观)(天)(下)(第)(11期)((2016.5.8重)(申)(保)(持)(谨)(慎)(的)(观)(点)()
降)(低)(预)(期)(收)(益)(,保)(住)(胜)(利)(果)(实)(——兴)(财)(富)(瞳)(观)(天)(下)(第)(5期)((2016.3.27对)(市)(场)(短)(期)(判)(断)(由)(乐)(观)(转)(向)(谨)(慎)()
下)(周)(主)(板)(创)(业)(板)(皆)(可)(看)(高)(一)(线)(——兴)(财)(富)(瞳)(观)(天)(下)(第)(3期)((2016.3.11短)(期)(转)(向)(乐)(观)(看)(多)(市)(场)()
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